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Women's Strawweight

5 Rounds

Mackenzie Dern won · U-DEC R5

Elo1521

Elo1506

Mackenzie DernvsAngela HillUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · Saturday, May 20, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mackenzie Dern won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupMackenzie Dern: Submission grapplervsAngela Hill: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Mackenzie Dern wins(62.7%)

Actual result: Mackenzie Dern wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mackenzie Dern at -162 American odds

+$62 profit

$162 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Angela Hill has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mackenzie Dern

Red Corner

Angela Hill

Blue Corner

-162

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+136

(42%)

1521

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'3"

160.02 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mackenzie DernW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jessica Andrade · Nov 23

vs Amanda Lemos · Feb 24

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 24

SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jan 25

vs Virna Jandiroba · Oct 25

latest

Angela Hill

oldest →

vs Tabatha Ricci · Aug 24

vs Ketlen Souza · Feb 25

vs Iasmin Lucindo · Aug 25

vs Fatima Kline · Nov 25

DECvs Xiong Jingnan · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mackenzie DernMetricAngela Hill

3.47

Strikes / min

5.37

3.93

Strikes absorbed / min

5.02

51%

Strike defense

60%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

0.75

37%

Takedown defense

72%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mackenzie DernAngela Hill

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)Angela Hill(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.0|Blue -15.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mackenzie DernTargetAngela Hill

By target zone

104

56% acc · 83%

Head

42% acc · 41%

90% acc · 14%

Body

93% acc · 59%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

0% acc

By position

44% acc · 46%

Distance

47% acc · 53%

86% acc · 15%

Clinch

97% acc · 45%

88% acc · 39%

Ground

33% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mackenzie Dern rounds

even

Angela Hill rounds

Round 1Mackenzie Dern edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control3:08

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:02Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Angela Hill edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:33Control

Round 3Mackenzie Dern edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control3:23

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:04Control

Round 4Mackenzie Dern edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control2:03

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:32Control

Round 5Mackenzie Dern edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control4:38

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

126 / 210

Sig Strikes

66 / 108

62.4%

Sig Str %

52.8%

247 / 340

Total Strikes

94 / 142

3 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

40%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

13:12

Ctrl Time

7:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Angela Hill	12 / 16	15 / 24	0 / 0
1	Mackenzie Dern	23 / 42	37 / 57	0 / 1
2	Angela Hill	27 / 40	41 / 54	0 / 0
2	Mackenzie Dern	22 / 49	31 / 58	0 / 3
3	Angela Hill	1 / 8	3 / 10	0 / 0
3	Mackenzie Dern	30 / 39	70 / 82	1 / 2
4	Mackenzie Dern	24 / 50	34 / 60	1 / 2
4	Angela Hill	23 / 38	31 / 46	0 / 0
5	Angela Hill	3 / 6	4 / 8	0 / 0
5	Mackenzie Dern	27 / 30	75 / 83	1 / 1

Mackenzie Dern

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights16

Angela Hill

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights30