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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Amanda Ribas won · U-DEC R3

Elo1521

Elo1480

Mackenzie DernvsAmanda RibasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · Saturday, October 12, 2019Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Amanda Ribas won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMackenzie Dern: Submission grapplervsAmanda Ribas: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Amanda Ribas wins(72.3%)

Actual result: Amanda Ribas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amanda Ribas at +160 American odds

+$160 profit

$260 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Amanda Ribas enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Amanda Ribas has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mackenzie Dern

Red Corner

Amanda Ribas

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1521

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'4"

160.02 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mackenzie DernW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jessica Andrade · Nov 23

vs Amanda Lemos · Feb 24

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 24

SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jan 25

vs Virna Jandiroba · Oct 25

latest

Amanda RibasL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Maycee Barber · Jun 23

KOvs Luana Pinheiro · Nov 23

vs Rose Namajunas · Mar 24

SUBvs Mackenzie Dern · Jan 25

KOvs Tabatha Ricci · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mackenzie DernMetricAmanda Ribas

3.47

Strikes / min

4.26

3.93

Strikes absorbed / min

3.29

51%

Strike defense

60%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

2.05

37%

Takedown defense

82%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.46Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap+0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mackenzie DernAmanda Ribas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)Amanda Ribas(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +40.8|Blue -40.8

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +413.0|Blue -413.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mackenzie DernTargetAmanda Ribas

By target zone

12% acc · 80%

Head

25% acc · 54%

38% acc · 15%

Body

75% acc · 28%

50% acc · 5%

Leg

87% acc · 18%

By position

13% acc · 95%

Distance

35% acc · 97%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

67% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mackenzie Dern rounds

even

Amanda Ribas rounds

Round 1Amanda Ribas edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:02

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:13Control

Round 2Amanda Ribas edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 3Amanda Ribas edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 145

Sig Strikes

74 / 206

13.3%

Sig Str %

35%

50 / 175

Total Strikes

84 / 216

0 / 6

TDs

2 / 2

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

1:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Amanda Ribas	16 / 57	19 / 60	1 / 1
1	Mackenzie Dern	4 / 44	30 / 70	0 / 1
2	Amanda Ribas	22 / 76	25 / 79	1 / 1
2	Mackenzie Dern	9 / 50	13 / 54	0 / 3
3	Amanda Ribas	36 / 73	40 / 77	0 / 0
3	Mackenzie Dern	7 / 51	7 / 51	0 / 2

Mackenzie Dern

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights16

Amanda Ribas

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights13