← All fights/Event page

Women's Strawweight

5 Rounds

Mackenzie Dern won · SUB R3

Elo1521

Elo1480

Mackenzie DernvsAmanda RibasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Saturday, January 11, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mackenzie Dern won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:56

Style matchupMackenzie Dern: Submission grapplervsAmanda Ribas: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Mackenzie Dern wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Mackenzie Dern wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mackenzie Dern at +162 American odds

+$162 profit

$262 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Amanda Ribas has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mackenzie Dern

Red Corner

Amanda Ribas

Blue Corner

+162

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-194

(66%)

1521

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'4"

160.02 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mackenzie DernW2 streak

oldest →

vs Angela Hill · May 23

KOvs Jessica Andrade · Nov 23

vs Amanda Lemos · Feb 24

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 24

vs Virna Jandiroba · Oct 25

latest

Amanda RibasL2 streak

oldest →

vs Viviane Araujo · Mar 23

KOvs Maycee Barber · Jun 23

KOvs Luana Pinheiro · Nov 23

vs Rose Namajunas · Mar 24

KOvs Tabatha Ricci · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mackenzie DernMetricAmanda Ribas

3.47

Strikes / min

4.26

3.93

Strikes absorbed / min

3.29

51%

Strike defense

60%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

2.05

37%

Takedown defense

82%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.46Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap+0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mackenzie DernAmanda Ribas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)Amanda Ribas(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +40.8|Blue -40.8

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mackenzie DernTargetAmanda Ribas

By target zone

48% acc · 48%

Head

23% acc · 59%

38% acc · 11%

Body

25% acc · 6%

100% acc · 41%

Leg

75% acc · 35%

By position

53% acc · 67%

Distance

27% acc · 82%

33% acc · 4%

Clinch

89% acc · 30%

Ground

60% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mackenzie Dern rounds

even

Amanda Ribas rounds

Round 1Mackenzie Dern edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control2:36

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Amanda Ribas edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:19

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:31Control

Round 3Mackenzie Dern edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:39

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 46

Sig Strikes

17 / 56

71.3%

Sig Str %

34.3%

82 / 107

Total Strikes

99 / 151

1 / 3

TDs

2 / 2

33.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

4:34

Ctrl Time

5:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Amanda Ribas	10 / 33	27 / 50	0 / 0	0
1	Mackenzie Dern	12 / 25	34 / 47	1 / 1	0
2	Amanda Ribas	3 / 6	37 / 49	1 / 1	0
2	Mackenzie Dern	3 / 3	24 / 25	0 / 1	0
3	Amanda Ribas	4 / 17	35 / 52	1 / 1	0
3	Mackenzie Dern	12 / 18	24 / 35	0 / 1	1

Mackenzie Dern

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights16

Amanda Ribas

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights13