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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Mackenzie Dern won · SUB R1

Elo1521

Elo1369

Mackenzie DernvsAmanda CooperUFC Prediction Result

UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · Saturday, May 12, 2018Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Mackenzie Dern won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:27

Style matchupMackenzie Dern: Submission grapplervsAmanda Cooper: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Mackenzie Dern wins(65.1%)

Actual result: Mackenzie Dern wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mackenzie Dern at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Mackenzie Dern threatens submissions; Amanda Cooper has lost 75% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Amanda Cooper (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Mackenzie Dern

Red Corner

Amanda Cooper

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1521

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'4"

Height

5'3"

160.02 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mackenzie DernW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jessica Andrade · Nov 23

vs Amanda Lemos · Feb 24

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 24

SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jan 25

vs Virna Jandiroba · Oct 25

latest

Amanda Cooper

oldest →

SUBvs Tatiana Suarez · Jul 16

vs Anna Elmose · Nov 16

SUBvs Cynthia Calvillo · Mar 17

KOvs Angela Magana · Dec 17

vs Ashley Yoder · Nov 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mackenzie DernMetricAmanda Cooper

3.47

Strikes / min

3.55

3.93

Strikes absorbed / min

3.20

51%

Strike defense

51%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

1.53

37%

Takedown defense

28%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mackenzie DernAmanda Cooper

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)Amanda Cooper(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +152.2|Blue -152.2

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mackenzie DernTargetAmanda Cooper

By target zone

47% acc · 93%

Head

21% acc · 83%

50% acc · 7%

Body

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

38% acc · 60%

Distance

24% acc · 100%

Clinch

75% acc · 40%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mackenzie Dern rounds

even

Amanda Cooper rounds

Round 1Mackenzie Dern edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:09

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 32

Sig Strikes

6 / 25

46%

Sig Str %

24%

16 / 33

Total Strikes

6 / 25

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Amanda Cooper	6 / 25	6 / 25	0 / 0	0
1	Mackenzie Dern	15 / 32	16 / 33	0 / 0	1

Mackenzie Dern

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights16

Amanda Cooper

StanceSwitch

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights6