Flyweight

3 Rounds

Matheus Nicolau won · Decision R3

Elo1425

Elo1491

Louis SmolkavsMatheus NicolauUFC Prediction Result

UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · Saturday, December 30, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Matheus Nicolau won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLouis Smolka: Submission grapplervsMatheus Nicolau: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Matheus Nicolau wins(61.6%)

Actual result: Matheus Nicolau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matheus Nicolau at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Louis Smolka is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Matheus Nicolau has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Matheus Nicolau has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Matheus Nicolau has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Louis Smolka

Red Corner

Matheus Nicolau

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1425

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Louis SmolkaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19

SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20

KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20

KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21

KOvs Davey Grant · May 22

latest

Matheus NicolauL3 streak

oldest →

vs David Dvorak · Mar 22

KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22

KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23

KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24

vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Louis SmolkaMetricMatheus Nicolau

4.67

Strikes / min

3.31

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

53%

Strike defense

65%

1.69

TDs / 15 min

1.22

32%

Takedown defense

90%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.56evenly matched on net striking+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Louis SmolkaMatheus Nicolau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Louis Smolka(10 fights)Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -66.6|Blue +66.6

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -281.0|Blue +281.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Louis SmolkaTargetMatheus Nicolau

By target zone

17% acc · 41%

Head

41% acc · 54%

64% acc · 47%

Body

68% acc · 44%

86% acc · 12%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

31% acc · 100%

Distance

48% acc · 83%

Clinch

Ground

68% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Louis Smolka rounds

even

Matheus Nicolau rounds

Round 1Matheus Nicolau edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:59Control

3Knockdowns

Round 2Matheus Nicolau edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Matheus Nicolau edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:01

21Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 159

Sig Strikes

87 / 172

29%

Sig Str %

50%

53 / 163

Total Strikes

107 / 196

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 4

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

4:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matheus Nicolau	34 / 59	42 / 69	0 / 0	1
1	Louis Smolka	7 / 43	7 / 43	0 / 1	0
2	Matheus Nicolau	32 / 70	32 / 70	0 / 0	0
2	Louis Smolka	27 / 74	27 / 74	0 / 0	0
3	Matheus Nicolau	21 / 43	33 / 57	3 / 4	1
3	Louis Smolka	15 / 42	19 / 46	0 / 0	0

Louis Smolka

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17

Matheus Nicolau

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights11