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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alex Oliveira won · SUB R1

Elo1356

Elo1419

KJ NoonsvsAlex OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves · Saturday, May 30, 2015Goiania, Goias, Brazil

Official fight result

Alex Oliveira won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:51

Style matchupKJ Noons: StrikervsAlex Oliveira: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: KJ Noons wins(75.1%)

Actual result: Alex Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

KJ Noons at +160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
KJ Noons has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Alex Oliveira has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

KJ Noons

Red Corner

Alex Oliveira

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1356

Elo

1419

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

KJ Noons

oldest →

vs Donald Cerrone · May 13

vs George Sotiropoulos · Oct 13

KOvs Sam Stout · Apr 14

vs Joshua Burkman · Feb 16

latest

Alex OliveiraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20

SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21

vs Niko Price · Oct 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

KJ NoonsMetricAlex Oliveira

3.68

Strikes / min

2.99

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

2.55

65%

Strike defense

46%

0.08

TDs / 15 min

2.35

68%

Takedown defense

63%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.10evenly matched on net striking+0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

KJ NoonsAlex Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

KJ Noons(5 fights)Alex Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -62.7|Blue +62.7

Recent Form

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +339.0|Blue -339.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

KJ NoonsTargetAlex Oliveira

By target zone

63% acc · 71%

Head

9% acc · 33%

Body

67% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 67%

By position

60% acc · 86%

Distance

27% acc · 100%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

KJ Noons rounds

even

Alex Oliveira rounds

Round 1Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 11

Sig Strikes

3 / 13

63%

Sig Str %

23%

7 / 11

Total Strikes

4 / 14

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 5

—

TD %

60%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Oliveira	3 / 13	4 / 14	3 / 5	1
1	KJ Noons	7 / 11	7 / 11	0 / 0	0

KJ Noons

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5

Alex Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights21