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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Holland won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1510

Elo1419

Kevin HollandvsAlex OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Saturday, March 5, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Holland won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:38

Style matchupKevin Holland: Well-roundedvsAlex Oliveira: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kevin Holland wins(71.3%)

Actual result: Kevin Holland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Holland at -435 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kevin Holland has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Holland

Red Corner

Alex Oliveira

Blue Corner

-435

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+330

(23%)

1510

Elo

1419

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'11"

205.74 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin Holland

oldest →

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25

vs Mike Malott · Oct 25

DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26

latest

Alex OliveiraL3 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Mar 20

vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20

SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21

vs Niko Price · Oct 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin HollandMetricAlex Oliveira

4.24

Strikes / min

2.99

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

2.55

50%

Strike defense

46%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

2.35

57%

Takedown defense

63%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kevin HollandAlex Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kevin Holland(10 fights)Alex Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +90.9|Blue -90.9

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +175.0|Blue -175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin HollandTargetAlex Oliveira

By target zone

50% acc · 48%

Head

21% acc · 29%

60% acc · 6%

Body

88% acc · 33%

100% acc · 46%

Leg

100% acc · 38%

By position

65% acc · 68%

Distance

47% acc · 95%

0% acc

Clinch

70% acc · 32%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kevin Holland rounds

even

Alex Oliveira rounds

Round 1Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:15

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 76

Sig Strikes

21 / 44

67.5%

Sig Str %

44%

51 / 77

Total Strikes

21 / 44

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 3

—

TD %

66%

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Oliveira	19 / 39	19 / 39	2 / 3	1
1	Kevin Holland	31 / 50	31 / 50	0 / 0	0
2	Alex Oliveira	2 / 5	2 / 5	0 / 0	0
2	Kevin Holland	19 / 26	20 / 27	0 / 0	0

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights27

Alex Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights21