Lightweight

3 Rounds

Chris Duncan won · SUB R2

Elo1482

Elo1535

Jordan VucenicvsChris DuncanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Saturday, March 22, 2025London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Chris Duncan won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:42

Model Prediction: Chris Duncan wins(88.8%)

Actual result: Chris Duncan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Duncan at +265 American odds

+$265 profit

$365 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Duncan threatens submissions; Jordan Vucenic has lost 50% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Jordan Vucenic

Red Corner

Chris Duncan

Blue Corner

-330

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1482

Elo

1535

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jordan Vucenic

oldest →

vs Guram Kutateladze · Aug 24

latest

Chris Duncan

oldest →

SUBvs Manuel Torres · Feb 24

SUBvs Bolaji Oki · Sep 24

vs Mateusz Rebecki · Aug 25

SUBvs Terrance McKinney · Dec 25

SUBvs Renato Moicano · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jordan VucenicMetricChris Duncan

2.11

Strikes / min

4.83

1.90

Strikes absorbed / min

4.57

58%

Strike defense

50%

0.63

TDs / 15 min

2.92

44%

Takedown defense

55%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.21evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jordan VucenicChris Duncan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jordan Vucenic(2 fights)Chris Duncan(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -52.7|Blue +52.7

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jordan VucenicTargetChris Duncan

By target zone

62% acc · 81%

Head

29% acc · 60%

100% acc · 6%

Body

100% acc · 33%

50% acc · 13%

Leg

25% acc · 7%

By position

55% acc · 75%

Distance

27% acc · 53%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

50% acc · 7%

100% acc · 13%

Ground

75% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jordan Vucenic rounds

even

Chris Duncan rounds

Round 1Chris Duncan edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:55Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:12

6Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:42Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 26

Sig Strikes

15 / 40

49%

Sig Str %

45.5%

22 / 32

Total Strikes

24 / 50

1 / 2

TDs

4 / 5

50%

TD %

87.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

5:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Duncan	9 / 13	16 / 21	1 / 1	0
1	Jordan Vucenic	1 / 3	4 / 6	0 / 0	0
2	Chris Duncan	6 / 27	8 / 29	3 / 4	1
2	Jordan Vucenic	15 / 23	18 / 26	1 / 2	0

Jordan Vucenic

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights2

Chris Duncan

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8