Flyweight

3 Rounds

Matheus Nicolau won · Decision R3

Elo1491

John MoragavsMatheus NicolauUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale · Friday, July 8, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Matheus Nicolau won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Matheus Nicolau wins(70.5%)

Actual result: Matheus Nicolau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matheus Nicolau at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Matheus Nicolau has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

John Moraga

Red Corner

Matheus Nicolau

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Moraga

oldest →

vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17

vs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Jun 17

KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17

vs Wilson Reis · Apr 18

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18

latest

Matheus NicolauL3 streak

oldest →

vs David Dvorak · Mar 22

KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22

KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23

KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24

vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John MoragaMetricMatheus Nicolau

2.57

Strikes / min

3.31

2.55

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

56%

Strike defense

65%

0.62

TDs / 15 min

1.22

44%

Takedown defense

90%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02evenly matched on net striking+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John MoragaMatheus Nicolau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Moraga(10 fights)Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +168.0|Blue -168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John MoragaTargetMatheus Nicolau

By target zone

20% acc · 61%

Head

28% acc · 32%

33% acc · 6%

Body

57% acc · 29%

83% acc · 32%

Leg

89% acc · 39%

By position

27% acc · 100%

Distance

48% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Moraga rounds

even

Matheus Nicolau rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Matheus Nicolau edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Matheus Nicolau edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 113

Sig Strikes

41 / 85

27%

Sig Str %

47.3%

33 / 115

Total Strikes

53 / 98

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Matheus Nicolau	12 / 25	12 / 25	0 / 0
1	John Moraga	11 / 40	11 / 40	0 / 1
2	Matheus Nicolau	19 / 35	19 / 35	0 / 0
2	John Moraga	12 / 36	12 / 36	0 / 0
3	Matheus Nicolau	10 / 25	22 / 38	0 / 1
3	John Moraga	8 / 37	10 / 39	0 / 1

John Moraga

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14

Matheus Nicolau

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights11