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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Jessica Andrade won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1484

Elo1521

Jessica AndradevsMackenzie DernUFC Prediction Result

UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 11, 2023New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Jessica Andrade won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:15

Style matchupJessica Andrade: WrestlervsMackenzie Dern: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Jessica Andrade wins(65.4%)

Actual result: Jessica Andrade wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jessica Andrade at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jessica Andrade enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Mackenzie Dern threatens submissions; Jessica Andrade has lost 38% of fights by sub.
Jessica Andrade has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jessica Andrade

Red Corner

Mackenzie Dern

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1484

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'1"

Height

5'4"

157.48 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jessica AndradeL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tatiana Suarez · Aug 23

vs Marina Rodriguez · Apr 24

vs Natalia Silva · Sep 24

SUBvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · May 25

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 25

latest

Mackenzie DernW3 streak

oldest →

vs Angela Hill · May 23

vs Amanda Lemos · Feb 24

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 24

SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jan 25

vs Virna Jandiroba · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jessica AndradeMetricMackenzie Dern

6.37

Strikes / min

3.47

5.58

Strikes absorbed / min

3.93

54%

Strike defense

51%

2.10

TDs / 15 min

0.93

75%

Takedown defense

37%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.79Δ 1.25 — meaningful gap-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jessica AndradeMackenzie Dern

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jessica Andrade(10 fights)Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -37.3|Blue +37.3

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jessica AndradeTargetMackenzie Dern

By target zone

36% acc · 51%

Head

38% acc · 78%

78% acc · 13%

Body

67% acc · 12%

86% acc · 36%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

48% acc · 81%

Distance

43% acc · 96%

50% acc · 11%

Clinch

40% acc · 4%

80% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jessica Andrade rounds

even

Mackenzie Dern rounds

Round 1Jessica Andrade edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Jessica Andrade edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:09

Knockdowns3

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 107

Sig Strikes

49 / 114

49.5%

Sig Str %

42.5%

53 / 107

Total Strikes

50 / 115

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 4

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mackenzie Dern	24 / 57	25 / 58	0 / 3
1	Jessica Andrade	27 / 50	27 / 50	0 / 0
2	Mackenzie Dern	25 / 57	25 / 57	0 / 1
2	Jessica Andrade	26 / 57	26 / 57	0 / 0

Jessica Andrade

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights30

Mackenzie Dern

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights16