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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Jailton Almeida won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1508
Jailton Almeida
Elo1506
Serghei Spivac

Jailton AlmeidavsSerghei SpivacUFC Prediction Result

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Saturday, January 18, 2025Inglewood, California, USA

Official fight result

Jailton Almeida won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:53

Style matchupJailton Almeida: WrestlervsSerghei Spivac: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jailton Almeida wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Jailton Almeida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jailton Almeida at -450 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jailton Almeida
Red Corner
VS
Serghei Spivac
Blue Corner
-450
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+350
(22%)
1508
Elo
1506
35
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'3"
200.66 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jailton AlmeidaL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Derrick Lewis · Nov 23
L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 24
W
SUBvs Alexandr Romanov · Jun 24
L
vs Alexander Volkov · Oct 25
L
vs Rizvan Kuniev · Feb 26
latest
Serghei Spivac
oldest →
W
SUBvs Derrick Lewis · Feb 23
L
KOvs Ciryl Gane · Sep 23
W
SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Aug 24
L
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jun 25
W
vs Ante Delija · Feb 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jailton AlmeidaMetricSerghei Spivac
2.23
Strikes / min
3.57
1.30
Strikes absorbed / min
4.23
43%
Strike defense
52%
5.64
TDs / 15 min
3.82
60%
Takedown defense
63%
1.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.93Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1584 vs 1558Strikes2.2 vs 3.6Takedowns5.6 vs 3.8Sub Atts1.70 vs 0.50Form0.5 vs 0.6
Jailton AlmeidaSerghei Spivac

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Jailton Almeida(10 fights)Serghei Spivac(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff
Red +70.0|Blue -70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jailton AlmeidaTargetSerghei Spivac

By target zone

20
74% acc · 87%
Head
14
52% acc · 93%
1
50% acc · 4%
Body
1
100% acc · 7%
2
100% acc · 9%
Leg
0

By position

7
58% acc · 30%
Distance
2
29% acc · 13%
4
67% acc · 17%
Clinch
0
12
92% acc · 52%
Ground
13
62% acc · 87%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Jailton Almeida rounds
0
even
0
Serghei Spivac rounds
Round 1Jailton Almeida edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns1
Control1:48
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:08Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
23 / 31
Sig Strikes
15 / 28
74%
Sig Str %
53%
36 / 49
Total Strikes
34 / 47
1 / 1
TDs
1 / 1
100%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
1
1:48
Ctrl Time
2:08

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Serghei Spivac15 / 2834 / 471 / 10
1Jailton Almeida23 / 3136 / 491 / 10

Jailton Almeida

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights11

Serghei Spivac

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights15