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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gilbert Burns won · SUB R3

Elo1466

Elo1419

Gilbert BurnsvsAlex OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · Saturday, March 21, 2015Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Gilbert Burns won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:14

Style matchupGilbert Burns: WrestlervsAlex Oliveira: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Gilbert Burns wins(67.2%)

Actual result: Gilbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gilbert Burns at -800 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Alex Oliveira has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gilbert Burns

Red Corner

Alex Oliveira

Blue Corner

-800

(89%)

Vegas Odds

+550

(15%)

1466

Elo

1419

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gilbert BurnsL5 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · May 23

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24

vs Sean Brady · Sep 24

KOvs Michael Morales · May 25

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Alex OliveiraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20

SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21

vs Niko Price · Oct 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gilbert BurnsMetricAlex Oliveira

3.16

Strikes / min

2.99

3.68

Strikes absorbed / min

2.55

52%

Strike defense

46%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

2.35

53%

Takedown defense

63%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52evenly matched on net striking+0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gilbert BurnsAlex Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gilbert Burns(10 fights)Alex Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +46.7|Blue -46.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.6|Blue +48.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gilbert BurnsTargetAlex Oliveira

By target zone

25% acc · 47%

Head

33% acc · 76%

83% acc · 29%

Body

75% acc · 10%

67% acc · 24%

Leg

80% acc · 14%

By position

27% acc · 59%

Distance

37% acc · 90%

100% acc · 18%

Clinch

50% acc · 10%

100% acc · 24%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gilbert Burns rounds

even

Alex Oliveira rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:32

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 2Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:12

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:56Control

Round 3Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control2:19

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:44Control

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 44

Sig Strikes

29 / 76

58.3%

Sig Str %

25%

37 / 69

Total Strikes

31 / 80

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

66.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:03

Ctrl Time

3:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Oliveira	10 / 35	12 / 39	0 / 0	0
1	Gilbert Burns	8 / 17	10 / 19	1 / 1	0
2	Alex Oliveira	19 / 40	19 / 40	0 / 0	0
2	Gilbert Burns	7 / 25	9 / 28	0 / 3	0
3	Alex Oliveira	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0
3	Gilbert Burns	2 / 2	18 / 22	1 / 1	2

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Alex Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights21