Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Lightweight
3 Rounds
Sage Northcutt won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1355
Francisco Trevino
Elo1491

Francisco TrevinovsSage NorthcuttUFC Prediction Result

UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · Saturday, October 3, 2015Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Sage Northcutt won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:57

Model Prediction: Francisco Trevino wins(62.2%)

Actual result: Sage Northcutt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Trevino at +375 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Sage Northcutt enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Trevino
Red Corner
VS
Sage Northcutt
Blue Corner
+375
(21%)
Vegas Odds
-470
(82%)
1355
Elo
1491
44
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'0"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco Trevino
oldest →
W
vs Renee Forte · Mar 14
L
vs Johnny Case · Jun 15
latest
Sage NorthcuttW3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Enrique Marin · Jul 16
L
SUBvs Mickey Gall · Dec 16
W
vs Michel Quinones · Nov 17
W
vs Thibault Gouti · Feb 18
W
KOvs Zak Ottow · Jul 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco TrevinoMetricSage Northcutt
2.65
Strikes / min
3.58
2.42
Strikes absorbed / min
1.96
64%
Strike defense
58%
0.97
TDs / 15 min
1.81
41%
Takedown defense
41%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.23Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes40.5 vs —Takedowns1.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form-0.5 vs 0.0
Francisco TrevinoSage Northcutt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Francisco Trevino(3 fights)Sage Northcutt(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -135.7|Blue +135.7
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -48.4|Blue +48.4
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco TrevinoTargetSage Northcutt

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
19
66% acc · 90%
0
Body
1
100% acc · 5%
1
50% acc · 100%
Leg
1
100% acc · 5%

By position

1
33% acc · 100%
Distance
3
75% acc · 14%
0
Clinch
8
73% acc · 38%
0
Ground
10
63% acc · 48%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Francisco Trevino rounds
0
even
1
Sage Northcutt rounds
Round 1Sage Northcutt edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:09
21Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
1 / 3
Sig Strikes
21 / 31
33%
Sig Str %
67%
1 / 3
Total Strikes
21 / 31
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:09
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Sage Northcutt21 / 3121 / 311 / 10
1Francisco Trevino1 / 31 / 30 / 00

Francisco Trevino

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights3

Sage Northcutt

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8