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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Francis Marshall won · Decision R3
Elo1522
Francis Marshall
Elo1479

Francis MarshallvsLucas BrennanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · Saturday, April 25, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Francis Marshall won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Lucas Brennan wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Francis Marshall wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Francis Marshall has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Francis Marshall
Red Corner
VS
Lucas Brennan
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1522
Elo
1479
27
Age
26
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francis Marshall
oldest →
L
vs William Gomis · Apr 23
L
KOvs Isaac Dulgarian · Aug 23
W
vs Dennis Buzukja · Aug 24
L
vs Mairon Santos · Mar 25
W
SUBvs Erik Silva · Feb 26
latest
Lucas BrennanNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francis MarshallMetricLucas Brennan
3.19
Strikes / min
0.60
3.45
Strikes absorbed / min
2.20
55%
Strike defense
52%
2.71
TDs / 15 min
0.00
88%
Takedown defense
33%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.26Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap-1.60
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601480150015201540← oldermost recent →
Francis Marshall(7 fights)Lucas Brennan(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +42.6|Blue -42.6
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Grappler Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Francis Marshall

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights7

Lucas Brennan

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights1