Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Featherweight
3 Rounds
Isaac Dulgarian won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1522
Francis Marshall
Elo1490

Francis MarshallvsIsaac DulgarianUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · Saturday, August 12, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Isaac Dulgarian won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:48

Style matchupFrancis Marshall: WrestlervsIsaac Dulgarian: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Isaac Dulgarian wins(68.8%)

Actual result: Isaac Dulgarian wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Isaac Dulgarian at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Francis Marshall has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Francis Marshall has 88pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Francis Marshall
Red Corner
VS
Isaac Dulgarian
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
1522
Elo
1490
27
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'7"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francis MarshallW2 streak
oldest →
L
vs William Gomis · Apr 23
W
vs Dennis Buzukja · Aug 24
L
vs Mairon Santos · Mar 25
W
SUBvs Erik Silva · Feb 26
W
DECvs Lucas Brennan · Apr 26
latest
Isaac Dulgarian
oldest →
L
vs Christian Rodriguez · Mar 24
W
SUBvs Brendon Marotte · Sep 24
L
SUBvs Yadier del Valle · Nov 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francis MarshallMetricIsaac Dulgarian
3.19
Strikes / min
2.99
3.45
Strikes absorbed / min
1.65
55%
Strike defense
40%
2.71
TDs / 15 min
4.57
88%
Takedown defense
0%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.26Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap+1.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1499 vs 1500Strikes3.7 vs 2.9Takedowns2.7 vs 6.1Sub Atts0.50 vs 1.50Form-0.2 vs 0.0
Francis MarshallIsaac Dulgarian

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Francis Marshall(7 fights)Isaac Dulgarian(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +31.7|Blue -31.7
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Grappler Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francis MarshallTargetIsaac Dulgarian

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
32
64% acc · 91%
0
Body
0
2
100% acc · 100%
Leg
3
100% acc · 9%

By position

2
29% acc · 100%
Distance
3
75% acc · 9%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
32
65% acc · 91%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Francis Marshall rounds
0
even
1
Isaac Dulgarian rounds
Round 1Isaac Dulgarian edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
35Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:18Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
2 / 7
Sig Strikes
35 / 53
28%
Sig Str %
66%
11 / 16
Total Strikes
61 / 83
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
4:18

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Isaac Dulgarian35 / 5361 / 831 / 10
1Francis Marshall2 / 711 / 160 / 00

Francis Marshall

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights7

Isaac Dulgarian

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4