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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Ortiz won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1491

Dustin OrtizvsMatheus NicolauUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · Saturday, July 28, 2018Calgary, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Dustin Ortiz won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:49

Style matchupDustin Ortiz: WrestlervsMatheus Nicolau: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Matheus Nicolau wins(70.9%)

Actual result: Dustin Ortiz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matheus Nicolau at -200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Dustin Ortiz is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Matheus Nicolau has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Matheus Nicolau has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Ortiz

Red Corner

Matheus Nicolau

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

165.1 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin Ortiz

oldest →

vs Zach Makovsky · Dec 16

SUBvs Brandon Moreno · Apr 17

KOvs Hector Sandoval · Aug 17

vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 18

vs Joseph Benavidez · Jan 19

latest

Matheus NicolauL3 streak

oldest →

vs David Dvorak · Mar 22

KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22

KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23

KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24

vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin OrtizMetricMatheus Nicolau

2.94

Strikes / min

3.31

2.17

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

56%

Strike defense

65%

3.01

TDs / 15 min

1.22

52%

Takedown defense

90%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.77evenly matched on net striking+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin OrtizMatheus Nicolau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Ortiz(10 fights)Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin OrtizTargetMatheus Nicolau

By target zone

16% acc · 75%

Head

25% acc · 29%

0% acc

Body

40% acc · 29%

50% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 43%

By position

14% acc · 63%

Distance

44% acc · 100%

Clinch

43% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Ortiz rounds

even

Matheus Nicolau rounds

Round 1Dustin Ortiz edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 43

Sig Strikes

7 / 16

18%

Sig Str %

43%

8 / 43

Total Strikes

7 / 16

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matheus Nicolau	7 / 16	7 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Dustin Ortiz	8 / 43	8 / 43	0 / 0	0

Dustin Ortiz

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights14

Matheus Nicolau

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights11