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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Ethyn Ewing won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1542

Elo1504

Ethyn EwingvsRafael EstevamUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Saturday, April 4, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Ethyn Ewing won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:44

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Ethyn Ewing

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Ethyn Ewing at -150 American odds · hypothetical only

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Style matchupEthyn Ewing: Pressure fightervsRafael Estevam: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Rafael Estevam wins(56.7%)

Actual result: Ethyn Ewing wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Estevam enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Ethyn Ewing has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ethyn Ewing has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ethyn Ewing

Red Corner

Rafael Estevam

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1542

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ethyn Ewing

oldest →

vs Malcolm Wellmaker · Nov 25

latest

Rafael EstevamW3 streak

oldest →

vs Charles Johnson · Nov 23

vs Jesus Aguilar · Feb 25

vs Felipe Bunes · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ethyn EwingMetricRafael Estevam

7.44

Strikes / min

2.40

4.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.90

63%

Strike defense

45%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

4.91

100%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.91Δ 4.41 — meaningful gap-1.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ethyn EwingRafael Estevam

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ethyn Ewing(2 fights)Rafael Estevam(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +38.1|Blue -38.1

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ethyn EwingTargetRafael Estevam

By target zone

52% acc · 77%

Head

21% acc · 80%

95% acc · 18%

Body

60% acc · 7%

75% acc · 5%

Leg

40% acc · 14%

By position

107

57% acc · 94%

Distance

24% acc · 100%

63% acc · 4%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ethyn Ewing rounds

even

Rafael Estevam rounds

Round 1Ethyn Ewing edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:15

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ethyn Ewing edged it

Sig. strikes67

Takedowns0

Control0:04

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ethyn Ewing edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

114 / 197

Sig Strikes

44 / 185

56%

Sig Str %

24.3%

116 / 200

Total Strikes

45 / 186

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 8

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:22

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafael Estevam	17 / 63	17 / 63	0 / 4
1	Ethyn Ewing	20 / 47	21 / 49	0 / 0
2	Rafael Estevam	14 / 79	15 / 80	0 / 4
2	Ethyn Ewing	67 / 109	68 / 110	0 / 0
3	Rafael Estevam	13 / 43	13 / 43	0 / 0
3	Ethyn Ewing	27 / 41	27 / 41	0 / 0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Ethyn Ewing

Odds

-150

Market-implied probability

Ethyn Ewing 57%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Ethyn Ewing (model pick · research)$167

Rafael Estevam$220

57% market-implied · model 55% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260517_110941

🔒 Pick locked May 17, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC · never rewritten

Ethyn Ewing

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4

Rafael Estevam

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4