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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Francis Marshall won · SUB R1
Elo1463
Elo1522
Francis Marshall

Erik SilvavsFrancis MarshallUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Saturday, February 28, 2026Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Francis Marshall won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:29

Style matchupErik Silva: WrestlervsFrancis Marshall: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Francis Marshall wins(77.6%)

Actual result: Francis Marshall wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francis Marshall at -820 American odds

+$12 profit

$112 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Francis Marshall has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Francis Marshall has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Erik Silva
Red Corner
VS
Francis Marshall
Blue Corner
+570
(15%)
Vegas Odds
-820
(89%)
1463
Elo
1522
39
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'9"
180.34 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erik SilvaL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs TJ Brown · Dec 22
L
KOvs Muhammad Naimov · Feb 24
latest
Francis Marshall
oldest →
L
vs William Gomis · Apr 23
L
KOvs Isaac Dulgarian · Aug 23
W
vs Dennis Buzukja · Aug 24
L
vs Mairon Santos · Mar 25
W
DECvs Lucas Brennan · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erik SilvaMetricFrancis Marshall
2.06
Strikes / min
3.19
1.52
Strikes absorbed / min
3.45
40%
Strike defense
55%
3.26
TDs / 15 min
2.71
60%
Takedown defense
88%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1470 vs 1486Strikes2.1 vs 3.4Takedowns3.3 vs 2.9Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.60Form-1.0 vs -0.3
Erik SilvaFrancis Marshall

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501473149515181540← oldermost recent →
Erik Silva(3 fights)Francis Marshall(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -58.6|Blue +58.6
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +378.0|Blue -378.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erik SilvaTargetFrancis Marshall

By target zone

2
33% acc · 40%
Head
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 20%
Body
0
2
100% acc · 40%
Leg
3
100% acc · 100%

By position

5
56% acc · 100%
Distance
3
60% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Erik Silva rounds
0
even
1
Francis Marshall rounds
Round 1Francis Marshall edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:42Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
5 / 9
Sig Strikes
3 / 5
55%
Sig Str %
60%
5 / 9
Total Strikes
10 / 13
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 2
—
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
1:42

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Francis Marshall3 / 510 / 131 / 21
1Erik Silva5 / 95 / 90 / 00

Erik Silva

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights3

Francis Marshall

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights7