Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Dustin Ortiz is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Matheus Nicolau has lost 75% of fights by KO.
- Matheus Nicolau has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dustin Ortiz
oldest →W
vs Zach Makovsky · Dec 16L
SUBvs Brandon Moreno · Apr 17W
KOvs Hector Sandoval · Aug 17W
vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 18L
vs Joseph Benavidez · Jan 19 Matheus NicolauL3 streak
oldest →W
vs David Dvorak · Mar 22W
KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22L
KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23L
KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24L
vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dustin OrtizMetricMatheus Nicolau
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.77evenly matched on net striking+0.33
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Dustin OrtizMatheus Nicolau
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dustin Ortiz(10 fights)Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Dustin OrtizTargetMatheus Nicolau
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Dustin Ortiz edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:04
Knockdowns1
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
