← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Donald Cerrone won · SUB R2

Elo1429

Elo1490

Donald CerronevsPaul KellyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort · Saturday, February 5, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:48

Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsPaul Kelly: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Paul Kelly wins(68.9%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paul Kelly at +235 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Paul Kelly is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Donald Cerrone has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone

Red Corner

Paul Kelly

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1429

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Paul Kelly

oldest →

SUBvs Matt Veach · Apr 10

vs Jacob Volkmann · Aug 10

KOvs TJ O'Brien · Nov 10

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricPaul Kelly

4.41

Strikes / min

3.22

4.48

Strikes absorbed / min

2.61

53%

Strike defense

59%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

1.34

73%

Takedown defense

30%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Donald CerronePaul Kelly

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Paul Kelly(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -61.5|Blue +61.5

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +47.6|Blue -47.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetPaul Kelly

By target zone

30% acc · 38%

Head

25% acc · 73%

87% acc · 35%

Body

50% acc · 18%

77% acc · 27%

Leg

67% acc · 9%

By position

46% acc · 70%

Distance

31% acc · 95%

33% acc · 5%

Clinch

20% acc · 5%

75% acc · 24%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Donald Cerrone rounds

even

Paul Kelly rounds

Round 1Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns2

Control1:56

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control1:35

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 74

Sig Strikes

22 / 75

50%

Sig Str %

29%

62 / 101

Total Strikes

29 / 82

3 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

83%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:31

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Paul Kelly	12 / 41	13 / 42	0 / 0	1
1	Donald Cerrone	20 / 40	31 / 53	2 / 3	0
2	Paul Kelly	10 / 34	16 / 40	0 / 0	1
2	Donald Cerrone	17 / 34	31 / 48	1 / 1	1

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37

Paul Kelly

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4