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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Donald Cerrone won · SUB R1

Elo1429

Elo1419

Donald CerronevsAlex OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · Sunday, February 21, 2016Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:33

Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsAlex Oliveira: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(66.7%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone

Red Corner

Alex Oliveira

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+230

(30%)

1429

Elo

1419

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Alex OliveiraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20

SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21

vs Niko Price · Oct 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricAlex Oliveira

4.41

Strikes / min

2.99

4.48

Strikes absorbed / min

2.55

53%

Strike defense

46%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

2.35

73%

Takedown defense

63%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Donald CerroneAlex Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Alex Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.7|Blue -9.7

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetAlex Oliveira

By target zone

0% acc

Head

31% acc · 29%

75% acc · 75%

Body

86% acc · 43%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 29%

By position

50% acc · 25%

Distance

33% acc · 21%

75% acc · 75%

Clinch

73% acc · 79%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Donald Cerrone rounds

even

Alex Oliveira rounds

Round 1Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control0:33

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:51Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 6

Sig Strikes

14 / 24

66%

Sig Str %

58%

7 / 10

Total Strikes

17 / 27

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:33

Ctrl Time

0:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Oliveira	14 / 24	17 / 27	0 / 0	0
1	Donald Cerrone	4 / 6	7 / 10	1 / 2	1

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37

Alex Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights21