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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Serghei Spivac won · SUB R1
Elo1481
Derrick Lewis
Elo1506
Serghei Spivac

Derrick LewisvsSerghei SpivacUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · Saturday, February 4, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Serghei Spivac won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:05

Model Prediction: Serghei Spivac wins(85.3%)

Actual result: Serghei Spivac wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Serghei Spivac at -305 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Serghei Spivac has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Serghei Spivac has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis
Red Corner
VS
Serghei Spivac
Blue Corner
+255
(28%)
Vegas Odds
-305
(75%)
1481
Elo
1506
41
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'3"
200.66 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derrick LewisL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23
W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24
W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25
L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26
L
KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26
latest
Serghei Spivac
oldest →
L
KOvs Ciryl Gane · Sep 23
W
SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Aug 24
L
KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 25
L
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jun 25
W
vs Ante Delija · Feb 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derrick LewisMetricSerghei Spivac
2.46
Strikes / min
3.57
2.57
Strikes absorbed / min
4.23
39%
Strike defense
52%
0.55
TDs / 15 min
3.82
52%
Takedown defense
63%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.11evenly matched on net striking-0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1589 vs 1541Strikes2.5 vs 3.5Takedowns0.6 vs 4.6Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.70Form-0.4 vs 0.7
Derrick LewisSerghei Spivac

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Serghei Spivac(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -25.0|Blue +25.0
Recent Form
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Layoff
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derrick LewisTargetSerghei Spivac

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
12
57% acc · 100%
0
0% acc
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
12
67% acc · 100%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Derrick Lewis rounds
0
even
1
Serghei Spivac rounds
Round 1Serghei Spivac edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
6Takedowns
2:32Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 3
Sig Strikes
12 / 21
0%
Sig Str %
57%
0 / 3
Total Strikes
36 / 54
0 / 0
TDs
6 / 8
—
TD %
75%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
2:32

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Serghei Spivac12 / 2136 / 546 / 81
1Derrick Lewis0 / 30 / 30 / 00

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights31

Serghei Spivac

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights15