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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Francis Marshall won · S-DEC R3

Elo1468

Elo1522

Dennis BuzukjavsFrancis MarshallUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Saturday, August 24, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Francis Marshall won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDennis Buzukja: Pressure fightervsFrancis Marshall: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Francis Marshall wins(55.5%)

Actual result: Francis Marshall wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francis Marshall at -218 American odds

+$46 profit

$146 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Dennis Buzukja (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Dennis Buzukja

Red Corner

Francis Marshall

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-218

(69%)

1468

Elo

1522

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dennis Buzukja

oldest →

vs Sean Woodson · Aug 23

KOvs Jamall Emmers · Nov 23

KOvs Connor Matthews · Mar 24

KOvs Marcio Barbosa · Apr 26

latest

Francis MarshallW2 streak

oldest →

vs William Gomis · Apr 23

KOvs Isaac Dulgarian · Aug 23

vs Mairon Santos · Mar 25

SUBvs Erik Silva · Feb 26

DECvs Lucas Brennan · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dennis BuzukjaMetricFrancis Marshall

4.21

Strikes / min

3.19

4.79

Strikes absorbed / min

3.45

48%

Strike defense

55%

0.62

TDs / 15 min

2.71

75%

Takedown defense

88%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.58evenly matched on net striking-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dennis BuzukjaFrancis Marshall

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dennis Buzukja(5 fights)Francis Marshall(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -53.7|Blue +53.7

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -231.0|Blue +231.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dennis BuzukjaTargetFrancis Marshall

By target zone

42% acc · 70%

Head

37% acc · 93%

52% acc · 21%

Body

50% acc · 4%

75% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

45% acc · 98%

Distance

37% acc · 93%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

75% acc · 5%

Ground

50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dennis Buzukja rounds

even

Francis Marshall rounds

Round 1Francis Marshall edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:56Control

Round 2Francis Marshall edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:01Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:08

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 145

Sig Strikes

57 / 150

44%

Sig Str %

36.3%

76 / 156

Total Strikes

82 / 175

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 6

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

5:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Francis Marshall	6 / 19	25 / 38	1 / 2
1	Dennis Buzukja	6 / 16	11 / 22	0 / 0
2	Francis Marshall	23 / 56	28 / 61	0 / 1
2	Dennis Buzukja	30 / 52	33 / 55	0 / 0
3	Francis Marshall	28 / 75	29 / 76	0 / 3
3	Dennis Buzukja	30 / 77	32 / 79	0 / 1

Dennis Buzukja

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Francis Marshall

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7