Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Adlan Amagov is a KO finisher (50% of wins). TJ Waldburger has lost 75% of fights by KO.
- Adlan Amagov has 38pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Adlan Amagov has 60pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
TJ Waldburger
oldest →W
SUBvs Mike Stumpf · Sep 11W
SUBvs Jake Hecht · Mar 12L
vs Brian Ebersole · Jun 12W
SUBvs Nick Catone · Dec 12 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
TJ WaldburgerMetricAdlan Amagov
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.37Δ 2.84 — meaningful gap+2.47
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
TJ WaldburgerAdlan Amagov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
TJ Waldburger(8 fights)Adlan Amagov(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -137.4|Blue +137.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +112.0|Blue -112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
TJ WaldburgerTargetAdlan Amagov
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Adlan Amagov edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:38
Knockdowns0
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
