Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- James Moontasri threatens submissions; Alex Oliveira has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- James Moontasri has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors James Moontasri (52.9%).
- Alex Oliveira has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alex OliveiraL4 streak
oldest →W
vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20L
SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22 James Moontasri
oldest →L
vs Joe Ellenberger · Jun 14W
SUBvs Cody Pfister · Feb 15L
SUBvs Kevin Lee · Jul 15W
KOvs Anton Zafir · Nov 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alex OliveiraMetricJames Moontasri
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.44Δ 1.91 — meaningful gap-1.47
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Alex OliveiraJames Moontasri
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alex Oliveira(10 fights)James Moontasri(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +60.2|Blue -60.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -99.0|Blue +99.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Alex OliveiraTargetJames Moontasri
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Alex Oliveira edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control2:44
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:10Control
Round 2Alex Oliveira edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control4:22
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
Round 3Alex Oliveira edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns1
Control4:15
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
