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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Ciryl Gane won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1531

Elo1506

Ciryl GanevsSerghei SpivacUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Saturday, September 2, 2023Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Ciryl Gane won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:44

Style matchupCiryl Gane: Elusive strikervsSerghei Spivac: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Ciryl Gane wins(61.2%)

Actual result: Ciryl Gane wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ciryl Gane at -192 American odds

+$52 profit

$152 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Serghei Spivac has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ciryl Gane

Red Corner

Serghei Spivac

Blue Corner

-192

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1531

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

205.74 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ciryl Gane

oldest →

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Sep 22

SUBvs Jon Jones · Mar 23

vs Alexander Volkov · Dec 24

vs Tom Aspinall · Oct 25

KOvs Alex Pereira · Jun 26

latest

Serghei Spivac

oldest →

SUBvs Derrick Lewis · Feb 23

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Aug 24

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 25

vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jun 25

vs Ante Delija · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ciryl GaneMetricSerghei Spivac

5.29

Strikes / min

3.57

2.33

Strikes absorbed / min

4.23

60%

Strike defense

52%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

3.82

47%

Takedown defense

63%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.96Δ 3.62 — meaningful gap-0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ciryl GaneSerghei Spivac

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ciryl Gane(10 fights)Serghei Spivac(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.9|Blue -24.9

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ciryl GaneTargetSerghei Spivac

By target zone

56% acc · 44%

Head

18% acc · 64%

80% acc · 36%

Body

67% acc · 18%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

67% acc · 18%

By position

105

69% acc · 96%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ciryl Gane rounds

even

Serghei Spivac rounds

Round 1Ciryl Gane edged it

Sig. strikes51

Takedowns0

Control0:09

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Ciryl Gane edged it

Sig. strikes58

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

109 / 156

Sig Strikes

11 / 44

69.5%

Sig Str %

24%

110 / 157

Total Strikes

11 / 44

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Serghei Spivac	7 / 26	7 / 26	0 / 1
1	Ciryl Gane	51 / 69	52 / 70	0 / 0
2	Serghei Spivac	4 / 18	4 / 18	0 / 0
2	Ciryl Gane	58 / 87	58 / 87	0 / 0

Ciryl Gane

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights13

Serghei Spivac

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15