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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Chris Duncan won · U-DEC R3
Elo1535
Elo1495

Chris DuncanvsYanal AshmouzUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Saturday, July 22, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Chris Duncan won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChris Duncan: WrestlervsYanal Ashmouz: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Chris Duncan wins(80.9%)

Actual result: Chris Duncan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Duncan at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Chris Duncan
Red Corner
VS
Yanal Ashmouz
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
1535
Elo
1495
33
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'9"
180.34 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Duncan
oldest →
W
SUBvs Bolaji Oki · Sep 24
W
SUBvs Jordan Vucenic · Mar 25
W
vs Mateusz Rebecki · Aug 25
W
SUBvs Terrance McKinney · Dec 25
L
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Apr 26
latest
Yanal Ashmouz
oldest →
W
KOvs Sam Patterson · Mar 23
W
vs Trevor Peek · Sep 24
L
vs Quillan Salkilld · Jun 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris DuncanMetricYanal Ashmouz
4.83
Strikes / min
2.88
4.57
Strikes absorbed / min
4.78
50%
Strike defense
50%
2.92
TDs / 15 min
3.24
55%
Takedown defense
64%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.26Δ 2.16 — meaningful gap-1.90

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1518 vs 1519Strikes4.9 vs 3.1Takedowns3.9 vs 0.9Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Chris DuncanYanal Ashmouz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801500152015401560← oldermost recent →
Chris Duncan(8 fights)Yanal Ashmouz(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +39.4|Blue -39.4
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris DuncanTargetYanal Ashmouz

By target zone

54
34% acc · 64%
Head
15
22% acc · 43%
23
77% acc · 27%
Body
8
57% acc · 23%
8
53% acc · 9%
Leg
12
75% acc · 34%

By position

82
41% acc · 96%
Distance
34
35% acc · 97%
3
50% acc · 4%
Clinch
1
50% acc · 3%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Chris Duncan rounds
0
even
0
Yanal Ashmouz rounds
Round 1Chris Duncan edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control0:06
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Chris Duncan edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:02
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Chris Duncan edged it
Sig. strikes40
Takedowns1
Control0:40
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
85 / 206
Sig Strikes
35 / 98
40%
Sig Str %
35%
87 / 209
Total Strikes
36 / 100
2 / 4
TDs
0 / 1
50%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:48
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Yanal Ashmouz9 / 289 / 280 / 10
1Chris Duncan19 / 6019 / 601 / 10
2Yanal Ashmouz14 / 3614 / 360 / 00
2Chris Duncan26 / 6026 / 600 / 10
3Yanal Ashmouz12 / 3413 / 360 / 00
3Chris Duncan40 / 8642 / 891 / 20

Chris Duncan

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8

Yanal Ashmouz

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights4