Lightweight

3 Rounds

Chris Duncan won · S-DEC R3

Elo1535

Elo1453

Chris DuncanvsOmar MoralesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Saturday, March 18, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Chris Duncan won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChris Duncan: WrestlervsOmar Morales: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Chris Duncan wins(86.0%)

Actual result: Chris Duncan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Duncan at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Duncan

Red Corner

Omar Morales

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-106

(51%)

1535

Elo

1453

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Duncan

oldest →

SUBvs Bolaji Oki · Sep 24

SUBvs Jordan Vucenic · Mar 25

vs Mateusz Rebecki · Aug 25

SUBvs Terrance McKinney · Dec 25

SUBvs Renato Moicano · Apr 26

latest

Omar MoralesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Gabriel Benitez · May 20

vs Giga Chikadze · Oct 20

vs Shane Young · Mar 21

SUBvs Jonathan Pearce · Sep 21

KOvs Uros Medic · May 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris DuncanMetricOmar Morales

4.83

Strikes / min

3.42

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.18

50%

Strike defense

58%

2.92

TDs / 15 min

0.46

55%

Takedown defense

63%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.26evenly matched on net striking+0.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris DuncanOmar Morales

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Duncan(8 fights)Omar Morales(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +81.9|Blue -81.9

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris DuncanTargetOmar Morales

By target zone

48% acc · 23%

Head

50% acc · 68%

81% acc · 32%

Body

83% acc · 11%

65% acc · 45%

Leg

100% acc · 21%

By position

59% acc · 81%

Distance

56% acc · 87%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

83% acc · 11%

100% acc · 13%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Duncan rounds

even

Omar Morales rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:12

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Chris Duncan edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control2:42

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Chris Duncan edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns4

Control3:37

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 83

Sig Strikes

47 / 80

65.3%

Sig Str %

56%

62 / 92

Total Strikes

53 / 86

5 / 14

TDs

0 / 0

25.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:31

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Omar Morales	26 / 42	27 / 43	0 / 0
1	Chris Duncan	24 / 40	24 / 40	0 / 2
2	Omar Morales	7 / 17	10 / 20	0 / 0
2	Chris Duncan	14 / 24	20 / 30	1 / 5
3	Omar Morales	14 / 21	16 / 23	0 / 0
3	Chris Duncan	15 / 19	18 / 22	4 / 7

Chris Duncan

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8

Omar Morales

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6