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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Rafael Estevam won · U-DEC R3

Elo1507

Elo1504

Charles JohnsonvsRafael EstevamUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Saturday, November 18, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Estevam won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCharles Johnson: Pressure fightervsRafael Estevam: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Rafael Estevam wins(66.0%)

Actual result: Rafael Estevam wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Estevam at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Johnson has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Johnson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Charles Johnson

Red Corner

Rafael Estevam

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1507

Elo

1504

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charles Johnson

oldest →

vs Ramazan Temirov · Mar 25

KOvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Aug 25

KOvs Alex Perez · Jan 26

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 26

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Jun 26

latest

Rafael Estevam

oldest →

vs Jesus Aguilar · Feb 25

vs Felipe Bunes · Aug 25

KOvs Ethyn Ewing · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charles JohnsonMetricRafael Estevam

4.77

Strikes / min

2.40

4.02

Strikes absorbed / min

3.90

55%

Strike defense

45%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

4.91

69%

Takedown defense

66%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.75Δ 2.25 — meaningful gap-1.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charles JohnsonRafael Estevam

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charles Johnson(10 fights)Rafael Estevam(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.7|Blue -2.7

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charles JohnsonTargetRafael Estevam

By target zone

55% acc · 53%

Head

36% acc · 56%

82% acc · 38%

Body

50% acc · 33%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

67% acc · 11%

By position

66% acc · 74%

Distance

35% acc · 61%

69% acc · 25%

Clinch

60% acc · 17%

33% acc · 1%

Ground

57% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charles Johnson rounds

even

Rafael Estevam rounds

Round 1Rafael Estevam edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:20

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:49Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:07

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:55Control

Round 3Charles Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes54

Takedowns0

Control0:16

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:39Control

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 109

Sig Strikes

18 / 43

66.3%

Sig Str %

36%

116 / 161

Total Strikes

35 / 77

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 22

—

TD %

21.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:43

Ctrl Time

9:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rafael Estevam	8 / 18	17 / 37	2 / 4	0
1	Charles Johnson	7 / 9	34 / 41	0 / 0	0
2	Rafael Estevam	1 / 7	8 / 20	1 / 7	1
2	Charles Johnson	11 / 20	20 / 32	0 / 0	0
3	Rafael Estevam	9 / 18	10 / 20	0 / 11	0
3	Charles Johnson	54 / 80	62 / 88	0 / 0	0

Charles Johnson

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Rafael Estevam

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4