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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Serghei Spivac won · M-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1506

Carlos FelipevsSerghei SpivacUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · Saturday, July 18, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Serghei Spivac won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCarlos Felipe: Pressure fightervsSerghei Spivac: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Serghei Spivac wins(72.4%)

Actual result: Serghei Spivac wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Serghei Spivac at -177 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Felipe

Red Corner

Serghei Spivac

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-177

(64%)

1494

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos Felipe

oldest →

vs Yorgan De Castro · Oct 20

vs Justin Tafa · Jan 21

vs Jake Collier · Jun 21

vs Andrei Arlovski · Oct 21

latest

Serghei Spivac

oldest →

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Sep 23

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Aug 24

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 25

vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jun 25

vs Ante Delija · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos FelipeMetricSerghei Spivac

4.88

Strikes / min

3.57

5.60

Strikes absorbed / min

4.23

50%

Strike defense

52%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

3.82

72%

Takedown defense

63%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.72evenly matched on net striking-0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlos FelipeSerghei Spivac

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlos Felipe(5 fights)Serghei Spivac(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -12.1|Blue +12.1

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Grappler Score

Red +48.9|Blue -48.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos FelipeTargetSerghei Spivac

By target zone

28% acc · 68%

Head

49% acc · 99%

100% acc · 32%

Body

100% acc · 1%

Leg

By position

36% acc · 100%

Distance

39% acc · 64%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

92% acc · 32%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlos Felipe rounds

even

Serghei Spivac rounds

Round 1Carlos Felipe edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Serghei Spivac edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 3Serghei Spivac edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

4:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 121

Sig Strikes

73 / 149

32.3%

Sig Str %

53.3%

44 / 121

Total Strikes

165 / 253

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 7

—

TD %

37.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

4:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Serghei Spivac	20 / 45	20 / 45	0 / 0
1	Carlos Felipe	23 / 59	23 / 59	0 / 0
2	Serghei Spivac	29 / 73	31 / 75	0 / 3
2	Carlos Felipe	20 / 58	20 / 58	0 / 0
3	Serghei Spivac	24 / 31	114 / 133	3 / 4
3	Carlos Felipe	1 / 4	1 / 4	0 / 0

Carlos Felipe

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5

Serghei Spivac

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15