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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alex Oliveira won · SUB R2

Elo1494

Elo1419

Carlos ConditvsAlex OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · Saturday, April 14, 2018Glendale, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Alex Oliveira won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:17

Style matchupCarlos Condit: Elusive strikervsAlex Oliveira: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Alex Oliveira wins(59.7%)

Actual result: Alex Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Oliveira at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Alex Oliveira has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Condit

Red Corner

Alex Oliveira

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1494

Elo

1419

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos Condit

oldest →

vs Neil Magny · Dec 17

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18

vs Court McGee · Oct 20

vs Matt Brown · Jan 21

vs Max Griffin · Jul 21

latest

Alex OliveiraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20

SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21

vs Niko Price · Oct 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos ConditMetricAlex Oliveira

3.66

Strikes / min

2.99

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.55

55%

Strike defense

46%

0.59

TDs / 15 min

2.35

38%

Takedown defense

63%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlos ConditAlex Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlos Condit(10 fights)Alex Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +74.6|Blue -74.6

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos ConditTargetAlex Oliveira

By target zone

50% acc · 50%

Head

36% acc · 89%

100% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 11%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

By position

55% acc · 50%

Distance

13% acc · 11%

Clinch

86% acc · 50%

Ground

53% acc · 89%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlos Condit rounds

even

Alex Oliveira rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control2:01

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:34Control

Round 2Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:51

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 18

Sig Strikes

9 / 23

70.5%

Sig Str %

31.5%

42 / 49

Total Strikes

22 / 37

1 / 1

TDs

3 / 3

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:52

Ctrl Time

3:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Oliveira	1 / 6	9 / 14	1 / 1	0
1	Carlos Condit	5 / 6	28 / 30	0 / 0	1
2	Alex Oliveira	8 / 17	13 / 23	2 / 2	1
2	Carlos Condit	7 / 12	14 / 19	1 / 1	0

Carlos Condit

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Alex Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights21