Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Francis Marshall has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Francis Marshall has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Erik SilvaL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Muhammad Naimov · Feb 24 Francis Marshall
oldest →L
vs William Gomis · Apr 23L
KOvs Isaac Dulgarian · Aug 23W
vs Dennis Buzukja · Aug 24L
vs Mairon Santos · Mar 25W
DECvs Lucas Brennan · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Erik SilvaMetricFrancis Marshall
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Erik SilvaFrancis Marshall
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Erik Silva(3 fights)Francis Marshall(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -58.6|Blue +58.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +378.0|Blue -378.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Erik SilvaTargetFrancis Marshall
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Francis Marshall edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:42Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
