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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Matheus Nicolau won · Submission R3

Elo1490

Elo1491

Bruno KoreavsMatheus NicolauUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · Saturday, November 7, 2015Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Matheus Nicolau won

Submission · Round 3 · 3:27

Model Prediction: Bruno Korea wins(50.4%)

Actual result: Matheus Nicolau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bruno Korea at +165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Matheus Nicolau has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Matheus Nicolau has 65pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Bruno Korea

Red Corner

Matheus Nicolau

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1490

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

165.1 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bruno KoreaNo prior UFC fights on record.

Matheus NicolauL3 streak

oldest →

vs David Dvorak · Mar 22

KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22

KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23

KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24

vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bruno KoreaMetricMatheus Nicolau

2.12

Strikes / min

3.31

3.96

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

42%

Strike defense

65%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.22

25%

Takedown defense

90%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.84Δ 2.17 — meaningful gap+0.33

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bruno Korea(1 fights)Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bruno KoreaTargetMatheus Nicolau

By target zone

25% acc · 59%

Head

53% acc · 67%

70% acc · 26%

Body

80% acc · 17%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

88% acc · 15%

By position

27% acc · 63%

Distance

59% acc · 72%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

60% acc · 33%

Ground

60% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bruno Korea rounds

even

Matheus Nicolau rounds

Round 1Matheus Nicolau edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:06Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Bruno Korea edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:23Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Matheus Nicolau edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:08Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 79

Sig Strikes

46 / 77

29%

Sig Str %

61%

49 / 103

Total Strikes

81 / 120

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 4

—

TD %

83%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

6:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matheus Nicolau	18 / 32	34 / 53	2 / 3	0
1	Bruno Korea	8 / 27	11 / 30	0 / 0	0
2	Matheus Nicolau	15 / 27	18 / 30	1 / 1	1
2	Bruno Korea	17 / 37	32 / 54	0 / 0	0
3	Matheus Nicolau	13 / 18	29 / 37	0 / 0	2
3	Bruno Korea	2 / 15	6 / 19	0 / 0	0

Bruno Korea

Stance—

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights1

Matheus Nicolau

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights11