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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Brian Ebersole won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1353

Brian EbersolevsTJ WaldburgerUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · Friday, June 22, 2012Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Brian Ebersole won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Brian Ebersole wins(74.6%)

Actual result: Brian Ebersole wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brian Ebersole at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brian Ebersole has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Brian Ebersole has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ebersole (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Brian Ebersole

Red Corner

TJ Waldburger

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1490

Elo

1353

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brian Ebersole

oldest →

vs Claude Patrick · Dec 11

vs James Head · Jul 12

vs Rick Story · Nov 13

vs John Howard · Sep 14

KOvs Omari Akhmedov · Jun 15

latest

TJ WaldburgerL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Mike Stumpf · Sep 11

SUBvs Jake Hecht · Mar 12

SUBvs Nick Catone · Dec 12

KOvs Adlan Amagov · Oct 13

KOvs Mike Pyle · Feb 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brian EbersoleMetricTJ Waldburger

2.32

Strikes / min

2.02

2.14

Strikes absorbed / min

2.39

56%

Strike defense

40%

1.70

TDs / 15 min

3.03

61%

Takedown defense

40%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

4.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18evenly matched on net striking-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brian EbersoleTJ Waldburger

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brian Ebersole(8 fights)TJ Waldburger(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +137.5|Blue -137.5

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Layoff

Red +83.0|Blue -83.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brian EbersoleTargetTJ Waldburger

By target zone

69% acc · 74%

Head

29% acc · 50%

55% acc · 15%

Body

86% acc · 33%

67% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

48% acc · 36%

Distance

37% acc · 72%

75% acc · 15%

Clinch

80% acc · 22%

86% acc · 49%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brian Ebersole rounds

even

TJ Waldburger rounds

Round 1TJ Waldburger edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:37

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:17Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Brian Ebersole edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control4:12

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:28Control

Round 3Brian Ebersole edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control3:27

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 59

Sig Strikes

18 / 41

66.7%

Sig Str %

36.7%

90 / 118

Total Strikes

33 / 59

2 / 5

TDs

1 / 1

44.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

8:16

Ctrl Time

1:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	TJ Waldburger	13 / 25	23 / 35	0 / 0	1
1	Brian Ebersole	15 / 26	15 / 26	0 / 1	0
2	TJ Waldburger	1 / 4	2 / 6	1 / 1	2
2	Brian Ebersole	14 / 18	40 / 47	1 / 1	0
3	TJ Waldburger	4 / 12	8 / 18	0 / 0	1
3	Brian Ebersole	10 / 15	35 / 45	1 / 3	0

Brian Ebersole

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

TJ Waldburger

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8