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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Brandon Royval won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1511

Elo1491

Brandon RoyvalvsMatheus NicolauUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · Saturday, April 15, 2023Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Brandon Royval won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:09

Style matchupBrandon Royval: Pressure fightervsMatheus Nicolau: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Matheus Nicolau wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Brandon Royval wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matheus Nicolau at -196 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matheus Nicolau has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Matheus Nicolau has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Brandon Royval (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Brandon Royval

Red Corner

Matheus Nicolau

Blue Corner

+164

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-196

(66%)

1511

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brandon Royval

oldest →

vs Brandon Moreno · Feb 24

vs Tatsuro Taira · Oct 24

vs Joshua Van · Jun 25

KOvs Manel Kape · Dec 25

SUBvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Jul 26

latest

Matheus NicolauL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tim Elliott · Oct 21

vs David Dvorak · Mar 22

KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22

KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24

vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brandon RoyvalMetricMatheus Nicolau

5.54

Strikes / min

3.31

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

43%

Strike defense

65%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

1.22

45%

Takedown defense

90%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.29evenly matched on net striking+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brandon RoyvalMatheus Nicolau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brandon Royval(10 fights)Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +19.1|Blue -19.1

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +210.0|Blue -210.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brandon RoyvalTargetMatheus Nicolau

By target zone

65% acc · 100%

Head

25% acc · 50%

0% acc

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

33% acc · 23%

Distance

40% acc · 100%

Clinch

77% acc · 77%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brandon Royval rounds

even

Matheus Nicolau rounds

Round 1Brandon Royval edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 22

Sig Strikes

2 / 5

59%

Sig Str %

40%

13 / 22

Total Strikes

2 / 5

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matheus Nicolau	2 / 5	2 / 5	0 / 0	0
1	Brandon Royval	13 / 22	13 / 22	0 / 0	0

Brandon Royval

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights13

Matheus Nicolau

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights11