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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Chris Duncan won · SUB R1

Elo1470

Elo1535

Bolaji OkivsChris DuncanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Saturday, September 28, 2024Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Chris Duncan won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:34

Style matchupBolaji Oki: Pressure fightervsChris Duncan: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Bolaji Oki wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Chris Duncan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bolaji Oki at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Duncan threatens submissions; Bolaji Oki has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Bolaji Oki has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Bolaji Oki has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Bolaji Oki

Red Corner

Chris Duncan

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1470

Elo

1535

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bolaji OkiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Timmy Cuamba · Feb 24

vs Michael Aswell Jr. · May 25

KOvs Mason Jones · Sep 25

KOvs Manoel Sousa · Mar 26

latest

Chris Duncan

oldest →

SUBvs Manuel Torres · Feb 24

SUBvs Jordan Vucenic · Mar 25

vs Mateusz Rebecki · Aug 25

SUBvs Terrance McKinney · Dec 25

SUBvs Renato Moicano · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bolaji OkiMetricChris Duncan

6.42

Strikes / min

4.83

5.12

Strikes absorbed / min

4.57

61%

Strike defense

50%

1.02

TDs / 15 min

2.92

75%

Takedown defense

55%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.30Δ 1.04 — meaningful gap+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bolaji OkiChris Duncan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bolaji Oki(5 fights)Chris Duncan(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -64.8|Blue +64.8

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bolaji OkiTargetChris Duncan

By target zone

53% acc · 89%

Head

39% acc · 70%

100% acc · 11%

Body

100% acc · 10%

Leg

33% acc · 20%

By position

54% acc · 75%

Distance

40% acc · 100%

75% acc · 21%

Clinch

33% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bolaji Oki rounds

even

Chris Duncan rounds

Round 1Bolaji Oki edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns2

Control1:11

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 50

Sig Strikes

10 / 25

56%

Sig Str %

40%

29 / 51

Total Strikes

12 / 29

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

66%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:11

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Duncan	10 / 25	12 / 29	0 / 1	1
1	Bolaji Oki	28 / 50	29 / 51	2 / 3	0

Bolaji Oki

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5

Chris Duncan

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8