Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Kelly has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Matt Veach has 70pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paul Kelly
oldest →L
vs Jacob Volkmann · Aug 10W
KOvs TJ O'Brien · Nov 10L
SUBvs Donald Cerrone · Feb 11 Matt VeachNo prior UFC fights on record.
Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paul KellyMetricMatt Veach
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.61Δ 4.40 — meaningful gap-3.79
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Paul KellyMatt Veach
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paul Kelly(4 fights)Matt Veach(1 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Paul KellyTargetMatt Veach
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Paul Kelly edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control2:45
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:46Control
Round 2Paul Kelly edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control2:40
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:40Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
