Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Augusto Sakai
oldest →W
vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 20L
KOvs Alistair Overeem · Sep 20L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Jun 21L
KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Dec 21W
vs Don'Tale Mayes · Feb 23 Serghei Spivac
oldest →L
KOvs Ciryl Gane · Sep 23W
SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Aug 24L
KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 25L
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jun 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Augusto SakaiMetricSerghei Spivac
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.77Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap-0.66
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Augusto SakaiSerghei Spivac
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Augusto Sakai(9 fights)Serghei Spivac(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -10.3|Blue +10.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Augusto SakaiTargetSerghei Spivac
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Serghei Spivac edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
4:09Control
Round 2Serghei Spivac edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:23
23Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:28Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
