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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Serghei Spivac won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1496

Elo1506

Augusto SakaivsSerghei SpivacUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · Saturday, August 6, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Serghei Spivac won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:42

Style matchupAugusto Sakai: Pressure fightervsSerghei Spivac: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Serghei Spivac wins(78.1%)

Actual result: Serghei Spivac wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Serghei Spivac at -315 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Augusto Sakai

Red Corner

Serghei Spivac

Blue Corner

+260

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-315

(76%)

1496

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Augusto Sakai

oldest →

vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 20

KOvs Alistair Overeem · Sep 20

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Jun 21

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Dec 21

vs Don'Tale Mayes · Feb 23

latest

Serghei Spivac

oldest →

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Sep 23

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Aug 24

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 25

vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jun 25

vs Ante Delija · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Augusto SakaiMetricSerghei Spivac

4.60

Strikes / min

3.57

3.83

Strikes absorbed / min

4.23

48%

Strike defense

52%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

3.82

56%

Takedown defense

63%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.77Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap-0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Augusto SakaiSerghei Spivac

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Augusto Sakai(9 fights)Serghei Spivac(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.3|Blue +10.3

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Augusto SakaiTargetSerghei Spivac

By target zone

7% acc · 13%

Head

67% acc · 100%

75% acc · 75%

Body

100% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

12% acc · 25%

Distance

60% acc · 27%

100% acc · 75%

Clinch

Ground

71% acc · 73%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Augusto Sakai rounds

even

Serghei Spivac rounds

Round 1Serghei Spivac edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

4:09Control

Round 2Serghei Spivac edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:23

23Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 23

Sig Strikes

33 / 49

35.5%

Sig Str %

69.5%

14 / 29

Total Strikes

86 / 119

0 / 0

TDs

6 / 8

—

TD %

73%

Sub Att

Rev

0:23

Ctrl Time

6:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Serghei Spivac	10 / 13	36 / 43	4 / 5	1
1	Augusto Sakai	7 / 11	12 / 16	0 / 0	0
2	Serghei Spivac	23 / 36	50 / 76	2 / 3	0
2	Augusto Sakai	1 / 12	2 / 13	0 / 0	0

Augusto Sakai

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights9

Serghei Spivac

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15