← All fights/Event page

Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Mackenzie Dern won · S-DEC R3

Elo1480

Elo1521

Ashley YodervsMackenzie DernUFC Prediction Result

UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · Saturday, March 3, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mackenzie Dern won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAshley Yoder: Well-roundedvsMackenzie Dern: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Ashley Yoder wins(63.5%)

Actual result: Mackenzie Dern wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ashley Yoder at +390 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ashley Yoder enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Ashley Yoder has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ashley Yoder (53.5%).
Ashley Yoder has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ashley Yoder

Red Corner

Mackenzie Dern

Blue Corner

+390

(20%)

Vegas Odds

-490

(83%)

1480

Elo

1521

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'4"

175.26 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ashley YoderL3 streak

oldest →

vs Livinha Souza · Aug 20

vs Miranda Granger · Nov 20

vs Angela Hill · Mar 21

vs Jinh Yu Frey · Jul 21

vs Emily Ducote · Oct 23

latest

Mackenzie DernW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jessica Andrade · Nov 23

vs Amanda Lemos · Feb 24

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 24

SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jan 25

vs Virna Jandiroba · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ashley YoderMetricMackenzie Dern

3.42

Strikes / min

3.47

4.13

Strikes absorbed / min

3.93

47%

Strike defense

51%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

0.93

66%

Takedown defense

37%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.71evenly matched on net striking-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ashley YoderMackenzie Dern

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ashley Yoder(10 fights)Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -41.2|Blue +41.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.5|Blue +48.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ashley YoderTargetMackenzie Dern

By target zone

25% acc · 52%

Head

35% acc · 56%

74% acc · 33%

Body

93% acc · 20%

80% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 24%

By position

30% acc · 71%

Distance

38% acc · 61%

88% acc · 29%

Clinch

90% acc · 27%

Ground

89% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ashley Yoder rounds

even

Mackenzie Dern rounds

Round 1Mackenzie Dern edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:02

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:14Control

Round 2Ashley Yoder edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:31

Knockdowns1

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Mackenzie Dern edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:10

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:53Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 142

Sig Strikes

70 / 143

35%

Sig Str %

49.7%

73 / 165

Total Strikes

76 / 149

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 6

—

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:43

Ctrl Time

5:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mackenzie Dern	25 / 52	28 / 55	0 / 3	0
1	Ashley Yoder	21 / 52	31 / 63	0 / 0	0
2	Mackenzie Dern	21 / 51	21 / 51	0 / 1	0
2	Ashley Yoder	21 / 54	27 / 61	0 / 0	0
3	Mackenzie Dern	24 / 40	27 / 43	1 / 2	1
3	Ashley Yoder	10 / 36	15 / 41	0 / 0	0

Ashley Yoder

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights11

Mackenzie Dern

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights16