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Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Amanda Lemos won · U-DEC R3
Elo1488
Amanda Lemos editorial illustration
Elo1521
Mackenzie Dern editorial illustration

Amanda LemosvsMackenzie DernUFC Prediction Result

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Saturday, February 17, 2024Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Amanda Lemos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAmanda Lemos: Well-roundedvsMackenzie Dern: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Amanda Lemos wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Amanda Lemos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amanda Lemos at -162 American odds

+$62 profit

$162 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Mackenzie Dern threatens submissions; Amanda Lemos has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Amanda Lemos has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Amanda Lemos (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Amanda Lemos
Red Corner
VS
Mackenzie Dern
Blue Corner
-162
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+136
(42%)
1488
Elo
1521
39
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'4"
165.1 cm
Reach
160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Amanda LemosL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Zhang Weili · Aug 23
L
SUBvs Virna Jandiroba · Jul 24
W
vs Iasmin Lucindo · Mar 25
L
vs Tatiana Suarez · Sep 25
L
vs Gillian Robertson · Mar 26
latest
Mackenzie DernW3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Angela Hill · May 23
L
KOvs Jessica Andrade · Nov 23
W
vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 24
W
SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jan 25
W
vs Virna Jandiroba · Oct 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Amanda LemosMetricMackenzie Dern
2.75
Strikes / min
3.47
3.01
Strikes absorbed / min
3.93
45%
Strike defense
51%
1.02
TDs / 15 min
0.93
63%
Takedown defense
37%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.26evenly matched on net striking-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1560 vs 1549Strikes3.2 vs 3.4Takedowns0.9 vs 0.9Sub Atts0.80 vs 1.20Form-0.1 vs -0.2
Amanda LemosMackenzie Dern

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701488150515231540← oldermost recent →
Amanda Lemos(10 fights)Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -32.6|Blue +32.6
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Amanda LemosTargetMackenzie Dern

By target zone

26
42% acc · 63%
Head
21
41% acc · 100%
8
80% acc · 20%
Body
0
0% acc
7
88% acc · 17%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

24
43% acc · 59%
Distance
13
31% acc · 62%
1
50% acc · 2%
Clinch
0
0% acc
16
73% acc · 39%
Ground
8
73% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Amanda Lemos rounds
0
even
1
Mackenzie Dern rounds
Round 1Mackenzie Dern edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
8Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:45Control
Round 2Amanda Lemos edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns1
Control2:09
Knockdowns1
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:30Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Amanda Lemos edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control1:53
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:45Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
41 / 80
Sig Strikes
21 / 54
64.7%
Sig Str %
43.7%
47 / 86
Total Strikes
50 / 85
2 / 2
TDs
1 / 3
100%
TD %
33.3%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
2
4:02
Ctrl Time
6:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mackenzie Dern8 / 2219 / 331 / 10
1Amanda Lemos11 / 2311 / 230 / 00
2Mackenzie Dern8 / 2411 / 280 / 10
2Amanda Lemos24 / 5127 / 541 / 10
3Mackenzie Dern5 / 820 / 240 / 10
3Amanda Lemos6 / 69 / 91 / 10

Amanda Lemos

StanceSouthpaw
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights15

Mackenzie Dern

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights16