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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Yancy Medeiros won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1419

Elo1403

Alex OliveiravsYancy MedeirosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · Saturday, December 2, 2017Detroit, Michigan, USA

Official fight result

Yancy Medeiros won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:02

Style matchupAlex Oliveira: WrestlervsYancy Medeiros: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alex Oliveira wins(58.0%)

Actual result: Yancy Medeiros wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Oliveira at -390 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Yancy Medeiros enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Yancy Medeiros threatens submissions; Alex Oliveira has lost 50% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Oliveira

Red Corner

Yancy Medeiros

Blue Corner

-390

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+320

(24%)

1419

Elo

1403

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex OliveiraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20

SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21

vs Niko Price · Oct 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22

latest

Yancy MedeirosL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Erick Silva · Jun 17

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Feb 18

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Jan 19

vs Lando Vannata · Feb 20

vs Damir Hadzovic · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex OliveiraMetricYancy Medeiros

2.99

Strikes / min

4.36

2.55

Strikes absorbed / min

5.67

46%

Strike defense

47%

2.35

TDs / 15 min

0.33

63%

Takedown defense

73%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.44Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex OliveiraYancy Medeiros

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Oliveira(10 fights)Yancy Medeiros(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +16.1|Blue -16.1

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex OliveiraTargetYancy Medeiros

By target zone

52% acc · 66%

Head

44% acc · 75%

71% acc · 31%

Body

76% acc · 17%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

86% acc · 8%

By position

54% acc · 74%

Distance

43% acc · 68%

74% acc · 25%

Clinch

68% acc · 17%

33% acc · 1%

Ground

85% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Oliveira rounds

even

Yancy Medeiros rounds

Round 1Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes55

Takedowns0

Control2:25

Knockdowns2

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Yancy Medeiros edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:08

37Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 3Yancy Medeiros edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control0:32

Knockdowns0

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

93 / 161

Sig Strikes

75 / 151

57.7%

Sig Str %

52.7%

96 / 164

Total Strikes

78 / 155

2 / 5

TDs

1 / 1

33.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:05

Ctrl Time

1:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Yancy Medeiros	22 / 46	24 / 48	0 / 0
1	Alex Oliveira	55 / 87	58 / 90	0 / 1
2	Yancy Medeiros	37 / 81	38 / 83	1 / 1
2	Alex Oliveira	28 / 58	28 / 58	0 / 2
3	Yancy Medeiros	16 / 24	16 / 24	0 / 0
3	Alex Oliveira	10 / 16	10 / 16	2 / 2

Alex Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights21

Yancy Medeiros

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14