← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alex Oliveira won · SUB R2

Elo1419

Elo1492

Alex OliveiravsTim MeansUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · Saturday, March 11, 2017Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Alex Oliveira won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:38

Style matchupAlex Oliveira: WrestlervsTim Means: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alex Oliveira wins(54.5%)

Actual result: Alex Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Oliveira at +175 American odds

+$175 profit

$275 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tim Means has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Oliveira

Red Corner

Tim Means

Blue Corner

+175

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1419

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex OliveiraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20

SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21

vs Niko Price · Oct 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22

latest

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex OliveiraMetricTim Means

2.99

Strikes / min

5.04

2.55

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

46%

Strike defense

60%

2.35

TDs / 15 min

1.14

63%

Takedown defense

64%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.44evenly matched on net striking+1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex OliveiraTim Means

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Oliveira(10 fights)Tim Means(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -72.7|Blue +72.7

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex OliveiraTargetTim Means

By target zone

35% acc · 50%

Head

73% acc · 89%

100% acc · 8%

Body

100% acc · 11%

83% acc · 42%

Leg

By position

29% acc · 17%

Distance

0% acc

75% acc · 50%

Clinch

100% acc · 56%

44% acc · 33%

Ground

80% acc · 44%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Oliveira rounds

even

Tim Means rounds

Round 1Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns4

Control2:47

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:44Control

Round 2Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control2:02

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 24

Sig Strikes

9 / 12

51%

Sig Str %

78.5%

18 / 31

Total Strikes

34 / 41

6 / 11

TDs

0 / 1

53%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:49

Ctrl Time

2:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tim Means	4 / 7	24 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Alex Oliveira	6 / 14	12 / 20	4 / 6	0
2	Tim Means	5 / 5	10 / 10	0 / 1	0
2	Alex Oliveira	6 / 10	6 / 11	2 / 5	1

Alex Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights21

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29