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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Shavkat Rakhmonov won · SUB

Elo1419

Elo1522

Alex OliveiravsShavkat RakhmonovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Saturday, October 24, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Shavkat Rakhmonov won

SUB

Style matchupAlex Oliveira: WrestlervsShavkat Rakhmonov: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Alex Oliveira wins(72.6%)

Actual result: Shavkat Rakhmonov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Oliveira at -112 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Shavkat Rakhmonov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Shavkat Rakhmonov threatens submissions; Alex Oliveira has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Shavkat Rakhmonov has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Oliveira

Red Corner

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Blue Corner

-112

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-112

(53%)

1419

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex OliveiraL3 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Mar 20

vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20

SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21

vs Niko Price · Oct 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22

latest

Shavkat RakhmonovW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Carlston Harris · Feb 22

SUBvs Neil Magny · Jun 22

SUBvs Geoff Neal · Mar 23

SUBvs Stephen Thompson · Dec 23

vs Ian Machado Garry · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex OliveiraMetricShavkat Rakhmonov

2.99

Strikes / min

3.25

2.55

Strikes absorbed / min

2.17

46%

Strike defense

51%

2.35

TDs / 15 min

1.40

63%

Takedown defense

85%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.44evenly matched on net striking+1.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex OliveiraShavkat Rakhmonov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Oliveira(10 fights)Shavkat Rakhmonov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -103.1|Blue +103.1

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -48.7|Blue +48.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex OliveiraTargetShavkat Rakhmonov

By target zone

33% acc · 33%

Head

43% acc · 46%

60% acc · 33%

Body

50% acc · 31%

75% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

33% acc · 44%

Distance

53% acc · 77%

83% acc · 56%

Clinch

50% acc · 23%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Oliveira rounds

even

Shavkat Rakhmonov rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control2:04

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 18

Sig Strikes

13 / 25

50%

Sig Str %

52%

16 / 26

Total Strikes

32 / 44

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:04

Ctrl Time

0:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Shavkat Rakhmonov	13 / 25	32 / 44	0 / 2	1
1	Alex Oliveira	9 / 18	16 / 26	0 / 2	0

Alex Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights21

Shavkat Rakhmonov

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7