Welterweight

3 Rounds

Randy Brown won · SUB

Elo1419

Elo1498

Alex OliveiravsRandy BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Saturday, April 24, 2021Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Randy Brown won

SUB

Style matchupAlex Oliveira: WrestlervsRandy Brown: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Randy Brown wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Randy Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Randy Brown at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Oliveira

Red Corner

Randy Brown

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1419

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex OliveiraL3 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Mar 20

vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20

vs Niko Price · Oct 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22

latest

Randy BrownL2 streak

oldest →

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jun 24

vs Bryan Battle · Dec 24

KOvs Nicolas Dalby · Apr 25

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 25

DECvs Kevin Holland · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex OliveiraMetricRandy Brown

2.99

Strikes / min

4.39

2.55

Strikes absorbed / min

3.35

46%

Strike defense

53%

2.35

TDs / 15 min

0.71

63%

Takedown defense

74%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.44evenly matched on net striking+1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex OliveiraRandy Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Oliveira(10 fights)Randy Brown(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -78.6|Blue +78.6

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex OliveiraTargetRandy Brown

By target zone

17% acc · 14%

Head

42% acc · 63%

100% acc · 14%

Body

50% acc · 6%

100% acc · 71%

Leg

83% acc · 31%

By position

58% acc · 100%

Distance

38% acc · 50%

Clinch

Ground

73% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Oliveira rounds

even

Randy Brown rounds

Round 1Randy Brown edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:23Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 12

Sig Strikes

16 / 32

58%

Sig Str %

50%

9 / 14

Total Strikes

23 / 39

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Randy Brown	16 / 32	23 / 39	0 / 0	1
1	Alex Oliveira	7 / 12	9 / 14	0 / 0	0

Alex Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights21

Randy Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21