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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Alex Oliveira won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1419

Elo1356

Alex OliveiravsPiotr HallmannUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · Saturday, November 7, 2015Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Alex Oliveira won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:51

Style matchupAlex Oliveira: WrestlervsPiotr Hallmann: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Alex Oliveira wins(61.9%)

Actual result: Alex Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Oliveira at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Piotr Hallmann threatens submissions; Alex Oliveira has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Piotr Hallmann has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alex Oliveira has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Oliveira

Red Corner

Piotr Hallmann

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1419

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'9"

193.04 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex OliveiraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20

SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21

vs Niko Price · Oct 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22

latest

Piotr HallmannL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 13

vs Al Iaquinta · Oct 13

SUBvs Yves Edwards · Jun 14

vs Gleison Tibau · Sep 14

KOvs Magomed Mustafaev · Jun 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex OliveiraMetricPiotr Hallmann

2.99

Strikes / min

3.98

2.55

Strikes absorbed / min

3.17

46%

Strike defense

58%

2.35

TDs / 15 min

2.55

63%

Takedown defense

70%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.44evenly matched on net striking+0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex OliveiraPiotr Hallmann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Oliveira(10 fights)Piotr Hallmann(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +63.3|Blue -63.3

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex OliveiraTargetPiotr Hallmann

By target zone

34% acc · 76%

Head

49% acc · 72%

64% acc · 17%

Body

56% acc · 14%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

56% acc · 14%

By position

35% acc · 57%

Distance

42% acc · 53%

43% acc · 38%

Clinch

59% acc · 36%

50% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Oliveira rounds

even

Piotr Hallmann rounds

Round 1Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control2:40

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Piotr Hallmann edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:18

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:22Control

Round 3Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 109

Sig Strikes

36 / 71

37%

Sig Str %

48.3%

54 / 121

Total Strikes

79 / 117

0 / 4

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:00

Ctrl Time

3:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Piotr Hallmann	19 / 35	27 / 43	0 / 1
1	Alex Oliveira	26 / 65	28 / 67	0 / 4
2	Piotr Hallmann	13 / 19	48 / 57	1 / 1
2	Alex Oliveira	10 / 24	20 / 34	0 / 0
3	Piotr Hallmann	4 / 17	4 / 17	0 / 0
3	Alex Oliveira	6 / 20	6 / 20	0 / 0

Alex Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights21

Piotr Hallmann

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6