Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alex Oliveira won · U-DEC R3

Elo1419

Elo1387

Alex OliveiravsPeter SobottaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · Saturday, July 25, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Alex Oliveira won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alex Oliveira wins(63.7%)

Actual result: Alex Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Oliveira at -182 American odds

+$55 profit

$155 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Peter Sobotta has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Peter Sobotta (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alex Oliveira

Red Corner

Peter Sobotta

Blue Corner

-182

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1419

Elo

1387

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex OliveiraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Mar 20

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20

SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21

vs Niko Price · Oct 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22

latest

Peter Sobotta

oldest →

SUBvs Steve Kennedy · Jun 15

KOvs Kyle Noke · Nov 15

vs Nicolas Dalby · Sep 16

KOvs Ben Saunders · May 17

KOvs Leon Edwards · Mar 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex OliveiraMetricPeter Sobotta

2.99

Strikes / min

2.14

2.55

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

46%

Strike defense

58%

2.35

TDs / 15 min

1.53

63%

Takedown defense

77%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.44Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap-0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex OliveiraPeter Sobotta

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Oliveira(10 fights)Peter Sobotta(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.2|Blue -32.2

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -721.0|Blue +721.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex OliveiraTargetPeter Sobotta

By target zone

37% acc · 42%

Head

28% acc · 45%

55% acc · 36%

Body

64% acc · 24%

77% acc · 22%

Leg

90% acc · 31%

By position

44% acc · 82%

Distance

43% acc · 100%

100% acc · 16%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Oliveira rounds

even

Peter Sobotta rounds

Round 1Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:46Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:19

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 93

Sig Strikes

29 / 67

46.7%

Sig Str %

44%

48 / 96

Total Strikes

30 / 68

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:26

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Peter Sobotta	7 / 21	7 / 21	0 / 0
1	Alex Oliveira	9 / 24	9 / 24	0 / 0
2	Peter Sobotta	10 / 17	11 / 18	0 / 2
2	Alex Oliveira	17 / 33	17 / 33	0 / 0
3	Peter Sobotta	12 / 29	12 / 29	0 / 1
3	Alex Oliveira	19 / 36	22 / 39	0 / 0

Alex Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights21

Peter Sobotta

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9