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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Niko Price won · U-DEC R3

Elo1419

Elo1445

Alex OliveiravsNiko PriceUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Saturday, October 2, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Niko Price won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlex Oliveira: WrestlervsNiko Price: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Niko Price wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Niko Price wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Niko Price at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Niko Price enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Oliveira

Red Corner

Niko Price

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1419

Elo

1445

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex OliveiraL3 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Mar 20

vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20

SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22

latest

Niko PriceL4 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Morono · Jun 24

vs Themba Gorimbo · Oct 24

SUBvs Jacobe Smith · Jun 25

KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · Feb 26

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex OliveiraMetricNiko Price

2.99

Strikes / min

5.11

2.55

Strikes absorbed / min

5.57

46%

Strike defense

48%

2.35

TDs / 15 min

1.06

63%

Takedown defense

50%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.44evenly matched on net striking-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex OliveiraNiko Price

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Oliveira(10 fights)Niko Price(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -26.0|Blue +26.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex OliveiraTargetNiko Price

By target zone

43% acc · 48%

Head

45% acc · 58%

74% acc · 26%

Body

64% acc · 11%

100% acc · 26%

Leg

91% acc · 31%

By position

57% acc · 86%

Distance

48% acc · 70%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

64% acc · 11%

Ground

81% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Oliveira rounds

even

Niko Price rounds

Round 1Niko Price edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:48Control

Round 2Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control2:43

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:31

34Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:02Control

Fight Stats

Totals

65 / 112

Sig Strikes

64 / 116

53.3%

Sig Str %

58.3%

83 / 131

Total Strikes

108 / 167

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 3

50%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

3:14

Ctrl Time

4:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Niko Price	16 / 22	34 / 42	0 / 1
1	Alex Oliveira	7 / 17	15 / 26	0 / 1
2	Niko Price	14 / 26	21 / 34	0 / 0
2	Alex Oliveira	19 / 35	29 / 45	1 / 1
3	Niko Price	34 / 68	53 / 91	1 / 2
3	Alex Oliveira	39 / 60	39 / 60	0 / 0

Alex Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights21

Niko Price

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19