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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Mike Perry won · U-DEC R3

Elo1419

Elo1399

Alex OliveiravsMike PerryUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · Saturday, April 27, 2019Sunrise, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Mike Perry won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlex Oliveira: WrestlervsMike Perry: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alex Oliveira wins(60.9%)

Actual result: Mike Perry wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Oliveira at -165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Mike Perry has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Alex Oliveira has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Oliveira

Red Corner

Mike Perry

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1419

Elo

1399

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex OliveiraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20

SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21

vs Niko Price · Oct 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22

latest

Mike PerryL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Vincente Luque · Aug 19

KOvs Geoff Neal · Dec 19

vs Mickey Gall · Jun 20

vs Tim Means · Nov 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex OliveiraMetricMike Perry

2.99

Strikes / min

4.32

2.55

Strikes absorbed / min

5.16

46%

Strike defense

52%

2.35

TDs / 15 min

0.81

63%

Takedown defense

78%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.44Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap-0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex OliveiraMike Perry

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Oliveira(10 fights)Mike Perry(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.2|Blue -20.2

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex OliveiraTargetMike Perry

By target zone

27% acc · 63%

Head

53% acc · 74%

44% acc · 15%

Body

75% acc · 9%

100% acc · 23%

Leg

92% acc · 17%

By position

34% acc · 88%

Distance

44% acc · 49%

55% acc · 13%

Clinch

95% acc · 28%

0% acc

Ground

79% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Oliveira rounds

even

Mike Perry rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:04

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Mike Perry edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:14

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:42Control

Round 3Mike Perry edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 137

Sig Strikes

65 / 110

36.3%

Sig Str %

59.7%

50 / 139

Total Strikes

75 / 120

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:18

Ctrl Time

2:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mike Perry	20 / 29	21 / 30	0 / 0
1	Alex Oliveira	17 / 48	19 / 50	0 / 1
2	Mike Perry	21 / 36	30 / 45	0 / 1
2	Alex Oliveira	16 / 34	16 / 34	0 / 0
3	Mike Perry	24 / 45	24 / 45	0 / 0
3	Alex Oliveira	15 / 55	15 / 55	0 / 0

Alex Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights21

Mike Perry

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15