Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alex Oliveira won · S-DEC R3

Elo1419

Elo1470

Alex OliveiravsMax GriffinUFC Prediction Result

UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · Saturday, March 7, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alex Oliveira won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlex Oliveira: WrestlervsMax Griffin: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alex Oliveira wins(56.1%)

Actual result: Alex Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Oliveira at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Max Griffin enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Max Griffin has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Oliveira

Red Corner

Max Griffin

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1419

Elo

1470

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex OliveiraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20

SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21

vs Niko Price · Oct 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22

latest

Max GriffinL3 streak

oldest →

vs Michael Morales · Jul 23

vs Jeremiah Wells · Feb 24

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 24

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 25

DECvs Victor Valenzuela · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex OliveiraMetricMax Griffin

2.99

Strikes / min

3.70

2.55

Strikes absorbed / min

3.69

46%

Strike defense

58%

2.35

TDs / 15 min

1.44

63%

Takedown defense

69%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.44evenly matched on net striking+0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex OliveiraMax Griffin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Oliveira(10 fights)Max Griffin(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -51.4|Blue +51.4

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex OliveiraTargetMax Griffin

By target zone

38% acc · 53%

Head

43% acc · 74%

85% acc · 28%

Body

50% acc · 17%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

52% acc · 88%

Distance

43% acc · 87%

38% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Oliveira rounds

even

Max Griffin rounds

Round 1Max Griffin edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:12

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:38Control

Round 2Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control1:34

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:45

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:51Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 77

Sig Strikes

23 / 50

53%

Sig Str %

50.3%

61 / 98

Total Strikes

62 / 96

1 / 5

TDs

2 / 3

25%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:31

Ctrl Time

5:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Max Griffin	7 / 16	23 / 35	2 / 2
1	Alex Oliveira	9 / 24	14 / 29	0 / 0
2	Max Griffin	12 / 28	19 / 35	0 / 1
2	Alex Oliveira	23 / 41	24 / 42	0 / 3
3	Max Griffin	4 / 6	20 / 26	0 / 0
3	Alex Oliveira	8 / 12	23 / 27	1 / 2

Alex Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights21

Max Griffin

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19